PHOTO/ Servicio de Prensa de la Presidencia de Ucrania vía REUTERS - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his wife Olena lay flowers at the Memorial Wall of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine amid Russia's attack on Ukraine during the Independence Day celebration in Kiev, Ukraine, 24 August 2022
The 24th of August is an important day in the Ukrainian calendar. On a day like today, but 31 years ago, the former Soviet republic declared its independence in the dying days of the USSR. It began a new path alone, the continuity of which would be challenged by Vladimir Putin three decades later. The full-scale invasion outlined by the Russian president, anticipated by accurate US intelligence but questioned by his Western allies, and even by the government in Kiev, sought to subjugate the country, to return it by force to "mother Russia". No one was able to understand the Kremlin's logic then. And few do now.
Ukraine's Independence Day coincides with the day that marks six months since the invasion began, half a year at war with an invader who will not budge, unmoved by the casualties, both his own and those of others, and by the denunciations of an international community in a state of decay. No one is avoiding the ravages of conflict. But this has not stopped Ukrainians from cautiously celebrating. Just a few weeks ago, hardly anyone was betting on resistance; now it is Ukraine that is emboldened and doubling down. They no longer want to resist, they want to win.
Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky made it clear that the war "began with Crimea [after the illegal annexation of the peninsula in 2014] and will end with Crimea liberated from Russian occupation". For weeks the Ukrainian army has been accelerating a counteroffensive in the east of the country that has not yet gained momentum in the face of Russian artillery. Expectations are high, but the reality on the ground and the consequences that the invasion could bring with it in the coming winter reduce the chances of success. The scenario could be reversed at any moment.
The former Ukrainian statesman-turned-economist commemorated the 31st anniversary of Ukraine's independence with his wife, Olena Zelenska, in a low-key but solemn ceremony in Kiev on Wednesday. The city is under threat and air raid alarms continue to reverberate. This time there will be no parades or large rallies. It matters little in the eyes of the gallery because Putin's invasion has given Ukrainian identity a new lease of life, more fuel for the nationalist fire. Ukraine's national consciousness is being shaped by Russian blows.
In the meantime, Ukraine has become a wasteland. At least 5,000 civilians have been killed, some 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives and another 15,000 Russian troops have also reportedly perished during the fighting, according to UN estimates, including a dozen generals. The Kremlin has not given figures; Ukraine has inflated them. Add to all this the 10 million people who decided to cross the border and leave their country behind. But what else has happened in these first six months?
The 100,000-strong contingent concentrated on the Ukrainian border was ordered to attack in the early hours of 24 February. The Russian army first shelled Ukrainian strategic enclaves to render them inoperable and then launched a series of offensives on the eastern front, through the Donbas; north, across Belarus; and south, up from the occupied Crimean peninsula. The aim was to encapsulate Ukrainian forces and overthrow the government in Kiev. Zelenski's life was in serious danger, but he decided to stay and ignore the warnings.
Against all odds, the Ukrainian army resisted its adversary's onslaught. Bolstered by Western arms assistance, Zelensky's troops made a show of force and repelled Putin's initial plan, whose operation floundered logistically and militarily. In the first weeks of the war, only the southern city of Kherson fell into Russian hands. The rest held firm. Timid advances on the Kiev region soon stalled and lethargy led to a 180-degree turn in the Kremlin's roadmap. From April onwards, the Russian General Staff concentrated its forces in the east, with the Donbas in its sights.
Since then, the conflict has turned into trench warfare reminiscent of the First World War. Trenches proliferate along the 2,400-kilometre frontline. There seems to be no clear way out, as no one seems to have the upper hand, let alone contemplate a break. While Kiev dreams of a complete expulsion of Russian troops, Moscow dreams of taking the east of the country for good.
Putin hopes that Western economic and military aid will come to an end as a result of the energy crisis, and Zelenski hopes that Western sanctions will halt Russia's war machine. The intention of both leaders is to arrive at a hypothetical negotiating table in a situation of strength or, at the very least, less desperate than their interlocutor. The propensity for dialogue, however, is non-existent. No one wants to sit down with the other.
The Kremlin's reorganisation of forces marked a turning point in the war, perhaps the most significant one to date. If Russia had stuck to its maximalist plans it would probably not have been long before it collapsed. But in the intervening period a series of events have inexorably shaped the course of the conflict. Starting with the first peace talks in Istanbul between Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers Sergey Lavrov and Dimitro Kuleba, which ended abruptly after the revelations of the Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka massacres. There, Russian forces committed atrocities qualified as war crimes. Peace under such conditions was impossible.
In April, Ukrainian troops humiliated Russia by sinking the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Armed Forces in the Black Sea, and recapturing Snake Island. The sides then spiralled into protracted fighting in numerous enclaves, from the city of Sievierodonetsk in Lugansk oblast to the Azovstal steelworks, where Ukrainian forces were subjected to a brutal siege, to the port city of Mariupol, which was reduced to ashes. Conditions were hellish.
All eyes are now on the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant near the southern city of Energodar, on the banks of the Dnieper River that splits Ukraine in two. In March, Russian forces seized the facility, which houses six of the country's fifteen nuclear reactors that generate about half of its electricity. Fighting is intensifying in the face of UN attempts to establish a ceasefire and a demilitarised zone. There is a possibility of a nuclear disaster.
The outlook is far from rosy. Despite the recent diplomatic breakthrough by the UN and Turkey with the unblocking of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and the subsequent resumption of grain exports, the parties are unlikely to agree on anything again. Each, in its own way, is taking a less conciliatory or dialogue-friendly stance. With Kiev in turmoil on the ground and Russia galvanised after the bombing that killed journalist and political scientist Daria Dugin, daughter of the controversial Alexander Dugin, a figure close to the upper echelons of the Russian intelligentsia, détente seems a pipe dream.
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